Quick Facts Investors Should Know
Status: Exploratory, no signed FID, feasibility study, or EPC contract.
Capex: Early industry estimates put a viable refinery in the US$3–5 billion range.
Capacity: Reports of 60,000–100,000 bpd circulate, but NAMCOR analysis shows a bankable project would likely need ≥100,000 bpd.
Location: Walvis Bay, Namibia is the logical site; Ghanzi, Botswana is planned as a storage depot, not a refinery.
Market: Domestic demand in Namibia is small (~25,000 bpd), so success depends on regional offtake from Botswana, Zambia, Zimbabwe and the DRC.
Why Now?
Namibia has emerged as Africa’s hottest oil frontier following giant discoveries by TotalEnergies (Venus) and Shell in the Orange Basin. President Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah has called for a refinery to capture downstream value, create jobs, and cut reliance on costly fuel imports.
Botswana, meanwhile, imports all of its refined fuel and has empowered its state owned Botswana Oil Ltd to handle 90% of the nation’s supplies. With fuel security high on the agenda, Ghanzi and other depots are being built to anchor reliable supply lines. A joint refinery, therefore, is more than just political symbolism, it’s an attempt to align supply, security and sovereignty.
Walvis Bay vs Ghanzi — Clearing Up the Confusion
If a refinery is built, Walvis Bay is the only location that makes logistical sense. It is Namibia’s deepwater port, the hub for imports, and the anchor of the Walvis Bay–Ndola–Lubumbashi Development Corridor leading to Zambia and the DRC.
By contrast, Ghanzi in Botswana has been mistakenly described in some reports as a refinery site. In reality, government tenders confirm it is a strategic fuel depot, a storage and distribution hub, not a refining complex.
The Competition Factor
Even if Namibia and Botswana move ahead, they won’t be alone. In July 2025, Dangote Petroleum Refinery announced plans to build a 1.6 million-barrel storage farm at Walvis Bay to service Namibia, Botswana, Zambia, Zimbabwe and even southern DRC.
This “import-plus-storage” model could meet regional demand without a local refinery raising the stakes for any greenfield project. Investors must weigh whether a new refinery can compete on price, scale, and timing.
Investment Reality Check
For the Namibia–Botswana refinery to move from talk to reality, five conditions must be met:
1. Feasibility Study: A published, bankable study with realistic feedstock scenarios and product slates.
2. Regional Offtake: Binding long-term supply contracts with Botswana Oil, Zambia and Zimbabwean importers.
3. Site & Logistics Plan: Walvis Bay as the refining hub, with integrated road/rail links inland.
4. Financing Model: Likely a mix of government support, export credit, project finance and private equity.
5. Upstream Linkage: Alignment with Namibia’s Orange Basin production timeline (TotalEnergies Venus FID expected around 2026).
Risks That Cannot Be Ignored
Speculative Numbers: The oft-repeated “$4bn, 60k–100k bpd” figures are not officially confirmed.
Feedstock Delays: Orange Basin developments may not deliver oil until the late 2020s or early 2030s.
Competitive Imports: Dangote and other traders may undercut refinery margins through cheaper imports.
Regulatory Hurdles: Large infrastructure projects at Walvis Bay must pass rigorous environmental and community approvals.
What Investors Should Watch Next
• A formal MoU or feasibility study published by Namibia and Botswana.
• Upstream milestones: TotalEnergies’ Venus development plan and FID in 2026.
• Concrete steps at Walvis Bay: EPC contracts for new tanks, port upgrades, or land allocations.
• Botswana’s offtake commitments: multi-year contracts with Botswana Oil Ltd.
Bottom Line
A Namibia–Botswana refinery is strategically compelling but commercially complex. It could reshape regional fuel supply and anchor SADC’s energy independence, but only if it secures crude supply, long-term off-take, and financing against stiff competition from existing storage and trading models.
For now, the project is a headline, not yet a deal. But as Walvis Bay grows into Southern Africa’s energy hub, investors can expect the refinery question to remain firmly on the table.
