Nigeria’s $19 billion Dangote Refinery, Africa’s largest single-train refining project, was built to solve one of the nation’s most persistent crises: dependence on imported fuel. With a capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, the Lekki facility promised to transform Africa’s biggest oil producer into a self-sufficient energy hub.

But instead of a smooth transition, the refinery’s launch ignited a power struggle between Dangote Petroleum Refinery and entrenched players in Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector. Today, what many call the “fuel war” is no longer theoretical — it is unfolding in real time, with massive implications for consumers, businesses, and governments across Africa.

The Supply Showdown

By late 2024, Dangote revealed his refinery had over 500 million litres of petrol in storage — enough to significantly reduce imports. His message to marketers was direct: “Nigeria has enough local fuel. Stop importing.”

But independent marketers and depot owners resisted. Fuel imports continued, tankers kept docking at Nigerian ports, and the refinery found itself sitting on unsold stock. This clash exposed the first major rift: domestic production vs. import dependency.

Dangote’s Counterattack

In early 2025, the refinery took regulators to court, challenging the continued issuance of import licences despite local capacity. Although the case was later withdrawn, it underscored a new reality: Dangote was ready to use legal and commercial muscle to defend his market share.

Then came a decisive move. The company announced the purchase of 4,000 compressed-natural-gas (CNG) powered trucks from China — a fleet designed to distribute refined products directly across Nigeria. By bypassing traditional depots and transport middlemen, Dangote shifted from being just a refiner to becoming a distributor.

Monopoly or Market Disruption?

Ironically, the same marketers who initially boycotted his fuel now accuse him of monopolising the system. But supporters argue the real monopoly was Nigeria’s decades-long import cartel, where a handful of companies controlled supply, pricing, and access.

Dangote’s defenders see his strategy as breaking that cartel and introducing efficiency into a market long plagued by scarcity and rent-seeking. His critics warn of over-concentration, where one private player dominates production and distribution.

Visible Impact on the Streets

Despite the controversy, there are outcomes ordinary Nigerians can see:

• Fuel queues have eased in major cities.
• Pump prices have stabilised in many regions despite global volatility.
• The new CNG truck fleet has reportedly created over 24,000 jobs, from drivers to mechanics to logistics staff.

For millions of citizens, this is not just business drama — it’s a tangible improvement in daily life.

The Policy Dilemmas Ahead

Behind the headlines, deeper questions remain unresolved:

1. Regulatory Balance. Can the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) ensure a level playing field while encouraging domestic refining?
2. Competition Rules. How will Nigeria prevent the shift from an import cartel to a refinery monopoly?
3. Labour Tensions. Unions like NUPENG have raised concerns about jobs at depots and old supply chains. Will Dangote’s jobs offset potential displacement?
4. Continental Impact. Can the refinery position Nigeria as a regional export hub for West and Central Africa, reshaping Africa’s energy trade?

Beyond Nigeria: A Continental Test Case

The stakes extend beyond Nigeria. Across Africa, from Angola to Mozambique, nations are watching closely. The refinery is a test of whether African countries can leverage natural resources to build world-class industrial capacity — or whether vested interests will continue to undermine progress.

Conclusion: The Battle Is Only Beginning

So far, Dangote has proven he can deliver scale, innovation, and disruption in a market long controlled by imports. His refinery is easing shortages, creating jobs, and shifting public expectations.

But the legal, regulatory, and industrial battles are far from settled. The refinery’s ultimate success will depend on whether Nigeria can balance domestic self-sufficiency, fair competition, and sustainable labour relations.

What is certain is this: the outcome of this refinery war will not only define Nigeria’s energy future but could also reshape the geopolitics of African oil.

Written By: Oni Lanre