It’s the intricate chessboard of Nigerian politics, few episodes illustrate the fragile dance between loyalty and ambition as powerfully as the unfolding saga involving Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Rauf Aregbesola, and Segun Adewale (Aeroland).

Once bound by shared purpose within Lagos’ progressive fold, these three political figures now find themselves at the crossroads of trust, betrayal, and strategic repositioning a dynamic that will undoubtedly shape the battle for 2027 and beyond.

Tinubu’s Calculated Bet That Changed Alimosho Forever

Alimosho, Lagos State’s largest local government, has long been a focal point of grassroots politics. In the early 2000s, Tinubu, then Governor and rising political strategist, faced a defining choice: whom to back in the internal battles tearing through the Alliance for Democracy (AD) and later the Action Congress (AC). He chose to throw his weight behind his loyal Commissioner for Works, Rauf Aregbesola, sidelining grassroots stalwart Segun Adewale, despite the latter’s growing popularity and influence.

This decision, while securing Tinubu’s hold on Alimosho’s political machinery at the time, deeply alienated Adewale, who eventually exited the Tinubu camp and pitched his tent with the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), seeking relevance and opportunities denied him in his former home.

Persistent public sentiment attributes Solomon Adeola Yayi’s retention of the Lagos West seat to political heavyweights Tinubu and Aregbesola, who allegedly used their influence to subvert Adewale’s mandate, a move seen by many as preserving APC dominance in Alimosho and the wider region. Though no judicial proceedings could directly confirm this claim when even court documents were said to be stolen, the accusations echo widely in political circles in Lagos.

Aregbesola’s Turn Against Tinubu

Fast forward to the present, and the irony is impossible to ignore. Aregbesola, whose rise from obscurity to Governor of Osun State and later Minister of Interior was orchestrated by Tinubu’s political genius, is now perceived as a key player working against his benefactor’s second-term bid. His alignment with opposition forces including his role in the African Democratic Congress (ADC) is widely viewed as a betrayal, one that strikes at the heart of Tinubu’s political legacy.

This development forces a painful reflection on the nature of political loyalty in Nigeria: How does a man turn against the very figure who made his rise possible?

Segun Adewale’s Crossroads: A Return to APC?

Amidst this unfolding drama, the political calculus for Segun Adewale is changing. The question on many lips is: Should Aeroland return to the APC, the party he once left in frustration?

The Case for a Return

• Restoring historical ties: Adewale’s political roots lie within the progressive camp. His return could symbolize healing and provide Tinubu’s camp with a tested loyalist in Lagos West.
• Strategic advantage: With Aregbesola’s exit, APC needs credible grassroots leaders in Alimosho. Adewale’s networks and support base could fill this vacuum.
• National platform: The ruling party offers greater scope for policy influence and service delivery.

The Case for Caution

• Lingering trust issues: Would APC truly embrace Aeroland as a partner or merely as a pawn in internal factional wars?
• Perception of opportunism: Crossing over now could erode Adewale’s credibility among his loyal supporters.
• No guaranteed reward: Without clear assurances, Adewale risks becoming lost in the power play without meaningful political gains.

The Verdict

Segun Adewale’s next move will not only determine his political relevance it will also reflect the moral temperature of Nigerian politics, where ambition often overshadows loyalty, and where alliances shift with the tides of personal gain.

If Aeroland is to rejoin APC, it must be on terms that secure his integrity, reaffirm his commitment to genuine service, and avoid making him a mere footnote in a season of political betrayals.

At Interface Africa Magazine, we believe Nigerian politics needs less of opportunism and more of principle, courage, and true service to the people.

For publication rights, interviews, or further commentary, contact the editorial board at www.interfaceafrica.co.uk.